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You are to assess the attractiveness of Home Depot’s stock and to make a recommendation to buy, hold, or sell shares in this company. Your report should include an analysis of the firm’s current financial condition as well as a free cash flow (FCF) valuation.
Part I: Current Financial Situation: Assess the firm’s current financial condition by completing a ratio trend and competitive analysis. Consider all ratios you believe are relevant to the analysis. What conclusions do you draw from this analysis regarding Home Depot’s current financial condition? Note: you may address the competitive analysis in one of two ways. One approach is to use the ratio formulas reviewed in class, and complete them for HD’s largest competitor – Lowe’s. The other approach is to find industry ratios on a finance website, and compare HD’s performance to the industry values. The only problem with this approach is that the industry ratios may be calculated using different formulas versus those discussed in class. So if you use industry ratios from an external source, then you would also need to use HD ratios from that same source for your competitive analysis.
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Part II: Free Cash Flow Valuation: Complete a 6-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast for the firm. Be sure to provide rationale for each of your forecast assumptions. Assumptions should consider historical results, recognize trends and incorporate the anticipated impact of any corporate initiatives. (Be sure to review the Management Discussion from HD’s most recent 10-K.) Apply the valuation decision model to assess the attractiveness of the firm’s stock. (Use a WACC of 8.3 percent.) Beyond completing the “base case” analysis, you should also perform sensitivity analyses that show how different assumptions affect your decision. Finally, considering your base case and sensitivity analyses, make a buy, hold, or sell recommendation.
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