Modelling Assignment-AW336

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You are offered an advanced gold project with two ore zones, an Upper Zone and a Lower Zone.They have reasonably assured geological resources of 2.7 Mt at a grade of 3.1 g/t Au and 4.3 Mt at 2.5 g/t Au respectively. The conversion factors from resource to reserve are 90% and 85% respectively, and there will be 2.5% mining loss and 10% dilution grading 1.0 g/t Au in both zones. Metallurgical recovery is calculated from the average head grade being treated in each year, based on a constant 0.25 g/t grade of Au in the tailings being lost.

The resource can be exploited by open cut mining. You must initially remove 5.0 Mt of overburden. Thereafter, the on going waste:ore ratio is 2.5 for the Upper Zone and 4.2 for the Lower Zone. You may assume that mining transitions instantaneously from the Upper to the Lower Zone after the first is mined out, and waste is mined at the specified waste:ore ratios throughout the mining of each zone.

You have made cost and other estimates in Australian dollars as contained in the template file available on Blackboard. (MFPE_Group_assignment_2.1_Template.xlsx).If parameters are entered for the Upper Zone only, the same values apply to the Lower Zone also if applicable.

Inflation of 3% p.a. will affect both revenue and costs. The gold price is forecast to escalate in real terms at a rate of 1% p.a. from a Time 0 price of US$1250/oz. You forecast that the long-term exchange rate will be1AUS$ = 0.92 US$.All costs, both capital and operating (as listed in the model template) escalate at a rate of 1.5% p.a. in real terms.

Capital will be invested over a two year period before production commences, and includes

• Items that can be immediately expensed (exploration, feasibility, overburden stripping etc.)
• Other items need to be depreciated as follows

o 50% as Project pooled assets,depreciated using the declining balance method with a 200% premium over the mine life, i.e. starting from the first year of production, and
o 50% as Normal items depreciated using the straight line method over a weighted average life of 12 years.
• Capital items (normal and pooled)can be salvaged for 15% more than their written down value in the year following closure of the mine
• Additional “Normal” capex is required for additional mining fleet in the year that the Lower Zone mining starts.
• Sustaining capital is estimated (in Time 0 dollars) to be 2.5% of the cumulative normal and pooled capex at the end of the preceding year, and is spent from the second to the second-last year of production.
• $7.5 million in working capital is injected in Year 2 just before commissioning and returned in the year following the closure of the mine.

Please build your model in nominal dollars.
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1. Would you be interested in this project assuming the assumptions are reliable?
2. How much would you be prepared to pay for it in Year 0?
3. Correct to 2 decimal places, what range of recoverable diluted reserves tonnages is your model valid for? Why?
Product code: Modelling Assignment-AW336
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