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Jaeger’s Decision Problem

From the weather reports, Jaeger concluded that there was a fifty-fifty chance that the rainstorm would hit the Napa Valley. Since the storm had originated over the warm waters off Mexico, he thought there was a 40% chance that, if the storm did strike, it would lead to the development of the botrytis mold. . If the botrytis did not form, however, the rainwater, which would be absorbed into the grapes through the roots of the vines, would merely swell the berries by 5-10%, decreasing their concentration. This would yield a thin wine that would sell wholesale for only about $2.00 per bottle, about $0.85 less than Jaeger could obtain by harvesting the not quite-ripe grapes immediately and eliminating the risk. Freemark Abbey always had the option of not bottling a wine that was not up to standards. It could sell the wine in bulk, or it could sell the grapes directly.
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These options would bring only half as much revenue, but would at least avoid damaging the winery’s reputation, which would be risked by bottling an inferior product.If Jaeger decided not to harvest the grapes immediately in anticipation of the storm, and the storm did not strike, Jaeger would probably leave the grapes to ripen more fully. With luck, the grapes would reach 25% sugar, resulting in a wine selling for around $3.50 wholesale. Even with less favorable weather, the sugar levels would probably top 20%, yielding a lighter wine selling at around $3.00. Jaeger thought these possibilities were equally likely. In the past, sugar levels occasionally failed to rise above 19%. Moreover,while waiting for sugar levels to rise, the acidity levels also need to be monitored. When the acidity drops below about 0.7%, the grapes must be harvested whatever the sugar level. If this happened, the wine would be priced at only about $2.50. Jaeger felt that this event had only about .2 probability.

The wholesale price for a botrytised Riesling would be about $8.00 per bottle. Unfortunately, the same process that resulted in increased sugar concentration also caused a 30% reduction in the total juice. The higher price was therefore partly offset by a reduction in quantity. Although fewer bottles would be produced, there would be essentially no savings in the vinification costs. The costs to the winery were about the same for each of the possible styles of wine and were small relative to the Wholesale Price.

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